January 17, 2012

The unemployment lie


Over these past few weeks we've seen unemployment numbers have sunk to 8.5%, the lowest level since early 2009. The media has reported this accurately, but sometimes the one number doesn't show the whole picture. In the days following the initial reports, conflicting reports have come out showing significantly worse underemployment levels and quit working numbers.

A few things to point out. Our long-term unemployment(>6 months) numbers are still over 6 million people. This is over double any other jump in this number from 1970 on. Statistics are also showing that those who haven't had a job in over 6 months are also less likely to get hired. It has been speculated many of these people may never find a job similar to what they had before the recession.

Another bad indicator: labor force participation rates. These rates are on a continuous trend downward. So while the the unemployment nu
mber has shrunk, it doesn't include those who are no longer working. It's estimated that the ACTUAL unemployment rate is 11.4%.

Yet another problem? This isn't likely to end for years... We have a fundamental problem here in the US. The longer you've been unemployed, the harder it is to get employed. No one wants to hire someone who hasn't worked for 2 years, when you've effectively lost many of your skills. We need productive people in society, and currently we don't have that.

How do we fix this? I'm not sure other than a system overhaul. In some way we have to encourage people to work. There are many, many plans out there, just nothing has gained much steam. One thing is for sure: we need to have an honest discussion. That isn't happening currently, and it needs to be fixed.

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